2015 AA Varsity Pre-Season Predictions

AA Varsity Football

2015 Pre-Season Predictions

The Early Look

Spring Football has not yet run its course, but there has surely been activity in the weight room, at camps, within coaching staffs and in general within the respective programs.  Graduation has hit some programs hard and conversely, the varsity has benefited at several locations from strong JV classes moving-up.

My intuition tells me that the 2015 season is going to be a wide-open affair that will feature a lot of movement among the top five to ten teams headed in to the playoffs.  The playoffs themselves will be very competitive.  It is far too early at this point to pick a winner, but I have a pretty good hunch that at least one of the finalists will hail from the Valley.   

Gridiron's Top 10

1. Abbottsford Panthers: Explosive offense, aggressive defense.
2. G.W. Graham Grizzlies: Size matters! Much momentum from 13/14 JV's and depth.
3. John Barsby Bulldogs: A very interesting mix this year.  JV's two years ago were very average. Much to prove to themselves as a program.
4. Vernon Panthers: The great Hope North of Hope!  Program hitting its stride!!
5. Ballenas Whalers: Power and vertical stretch. Technicians looking to take it another step.
6. Hugh Boyd Trojans: A very solid class of 11's and 12's.  The foundation is SOLID.
7. Mission Roadrunners: A threat to run the table if they get their game breakers in place.
8. Holy Cross Crusaders: On the rise! Power football is back at HC.
9. Pitt Meadow Marauders: Living up to their namesake, the Marauders now have speed to go with the brawl.
10. Windsor Dukes: Varsity Dukes have much experience and are more complete than in past three years.  Will be nasty to tangle with by mid-season.

Ranking The Conferences

1. Eastern: A great game on the schedule for every team, every week of conference play.
2. Western: Not too far off the East. The 2014 campaign showed much parity at the end.
3. Okanagen: Vernon, Valleyview and Fulton are tough, the rest are catching-up.
4. Southern: There is the top two teams and then the rest.
5. North: Getting more competitive for sure.  Still a one horse race though.


Conference Picks

Eastern Conference

1. Abbottsford Panthers:
2. G.W. Graham Grizzlies
3. Mission Roadrunners
4. Pitt Meadows Marauders
5. Rick Hansen Hurricanes
7. Robert Bateman Timberwolves

Northern Conference

1. Duchess Park Condors
2. Prince George Polars
3. Nechako Valley Vikings
4. Kelley Road Roadrunners
5. College Heights Cougars
6. Correlieu Clansmen

Okanagen Conference

1. Vernon Panthers
2. Valleyview Vikings
3. Clarence Fulton Maroons
4. Westsyde Blue Wave
5. South Kamloops Titans
6. Mt. Baker Wild

Southern Conference

1. Hugh Boyd Trojans
2. Holy Cross Crusaders
3. Frank Hurt Hornets
4. Moscrop Panthers
5. Langley Saints

Western Conference

1. John Barsby Bulldogs
2. Ballenas Whalers
3. Windsor Dukes
4. Carson Graham Eagles
5. Nanaimo District Islanders

Merry Christmas 2014

Merry Christmas One and All!

JV Alignment 2015

A Debate Has Begun

Mixed or tiered JV Regular Season Play

Reasoned debates are a healthy thing.

Here is a perspective:

BCSSFA Junior Varsity 2014 (Regular Season)

AA vs. AA

53 games -average score difference of 24.3 points

Largest score difference: 86 points

18 Games (34%) decided by 14 points or less

21 Games (39%) decided by 28+ points

AAA vs. AAA

21 games -average score difference of 25.2 points

Largest score difference: 54 points

4 games (19%) decided by 14 points or less

9 games (43%) decided by 28+ points

AA vs. AAA

57 games -average score difference of 25.5 points

Largest score difference: 61 points

16 Games (28%) decided by 14 points or less

8 victories by AA teams over AAA teams

25 games (44%) decided by 28+ points

Have received some statistical comparisons of play this past year at the JV level.  Take a good read folks.  At face value this would lend itself to a sense of parity, particularly between the AAA vs AAA and AA vs AAA games.  Still, parity is not complete.  AA vs AA is where the percentage of close contest is most favorable.  The AA vs AAA margin of victory is decisive in terms of percentage is 44% to 28 % being 16 % from a 2-1 margin.

Still, this may be palatable to some from a mathematical point of view.  Thank goodness however, our species does not communicate in numbers.  Our literature would lose meaning and relevance.  Try sitting down by the fire and reading several chapters of great binary code or rich exchanges of prime numbers and algebraic formulae.  Could turn into one of those nights where you just couldn’t put that book down.

What is missing here, is the reality of cross-over play in mixed divisions.  You see, I would venture to say that the majority of AA teams facing AAA competition in the JV (***developmental***) league did not roll their benches very hard at all.  In fact, coaches seeking to 1) win the game 2) keep the score close 3) keep the integrity of their offensive, defensive and special teams units 4) prevent ridiculous one on one mismatches for safety reasons,  probably don’t play their complete rosters or anything approaching their complete rosters in such contests.   The result being that:  1) starting units become 2 and 3 way starters peppered perhaps with middle of the roaders here and there 2) Attrition due to injury over a season spikes (a mathematical risk-management certainty), many players, through no fault of their own other than physiological development do not see meaningful playing time and are relegated to being living, breathing hitting dummies at practice at a time in their football career where they should be getting more playing time on a level playing field.   The ripple effect of this being: 1) Sagging morale 2) Loss of interest in the sport 3) Depleted rosters mid-to late season.  This depletion of the roster numbers is compounded by the attrition taking place amongst the iron men.

Now, this situation gets big legs in year two and three.  You see, in small schools, with the smaller pool of eligible athletes, the loss of a player or five is huge: 1) Less kids move up to varsity from the previous year’s roster 2) The kids new to the sport/in less mature stages of adolescence are not dumb to the experience of those who preceeded them.  They figure out what is coming down the pipes and they vote with their feet by not even trying the sport.  Many of those who do, opt out at the first adversity they encounter with playing time/getting smacked around 3) This again factors in to the atrophy of their program.

Factor in things like coaching availability, geography, school culture et al and you see where this is headed.  Over time, the competitive gap between the strong and the week widens to the point of absurdity.

There is a reason for anti-trust law in the business world and there is a reason for numbered tiering and scheduling.   This is particularly so at our JV level of play.   The statistics above cannot adequately give a back story, illustrate how games were played or even come close to nuance.  They do not speak to “facts on the ground”, group psychology/perception, physical attrition or cumulative effect on programs.   They are descriptive in a stove piped way.  They are a tool to rationalize a point of view in an argument, but are merely a sentence in a much larger and layered story.   They are crude.

I would submit to everyone that the litmus test for determining whether or not JV football is aligned in the most proper way would be to measure how many young people come back to play again the following year.  Other forms of measurement beyond this single statistic being nothing more than commentary upon it.

If we retain football players in our respective programs from the grade 8/JV level, we are successful.  How else can success be measured?

GI

BC Championship Game

Barsby 36 Mission 20

Great effort by both squads.  No quarter given, none asked for.  Hard Football All The Way.

Thus ends the 2014 season.  Time to reflect, consolidate and build a better mousetrap for 2015.

AA BC Semi-Final Weekend

And Then There Were Four!

John Barsby Bulldogs vs Vernon Panthers: The Vernon steamroller has flattened all before it in 2014. Standing squarely in front of the Panthers are the John Barsby Bulldogs.  Barsby's road to the semi's has been a lot rougher go.   Both teams however, have earned their way into this game and are no strangers to the post-season.  Vernon can run and throw the ball with equal dexterity, they do this with a monster offensive line and a bevy of outstanding backs/receivers.  Barsby gets the ball up-field a number of ways, but with no notable standouts.  The Barsby inside run is nasty.   Defensively, the Dawgs swarm as does Vernon. Special teams are a draw.  So what do the tea leaves say about this one? Well, on paper and judging by the season, Vernon should overpower Barsby plain and simple.  Vegas would heartily agree.  I however, put no faith in "the stats". Come playoff football, high school kids create their own story and things rarely go according to anyone's script.  This one will be close. GI's Pick: Too close to call.


Ballenas Whalers vs Mission Roadrunners: A match-up between two of the best pure run teams in the Province.  What is neat is how differently each squad moves the ball via the ground.  The speed advantage goes to Mission.  The offensive line to Ballenas.   This will be a grinding affair.  The word "attrition" comes to mind.  Neither roster is overly deep in terms of numbers so the team that waivers first could find themselves in a hole.  Now the video to date on each team shouts run-run-run at the viewer.  It may just be however, that a couple big pass plays could also blow this one wide-open. On specials, the Whaler short-kick is a game changer while the Mission mortar kick is a nasty cuss as well.  I am going to give specials to the Whalers, but not by a lot. GI's Pick: Whalers by 4

2014 AA Varsity Quarter-Finals

BC Quarter-Finals

There are now eight AA Varsity teams left who are still practicing.  This time next week, there will be four.  The opening round this year had a couple eyebrow raising scores but nothing spectacularly out of place.  The great unknown headed into the quarters is who got out of the first round healthy and who is nursing some injuries.

Opening Round Scores

Vernon 35   Argyle 0

Carson Graham 55 Duchess Park 6

Ballenas 51 Westsyde 6

John Barsby 41 Prince George 0

Hugh Boyd 26 G.W. Graham 20

Seaquam 39 Pitt Meadows 28

Abbottsford 34 Frank Hurt 0

Mission 35  Robert Bateman 0

GI's Picks

Abbottsford @ Vernon: This match-up intrigues the hec out of me.  The athletes and size on both rosters are insane!  Abbey throws the ball very, very well and has built itself around wide-open offense. Vernon is more balanced, but can do it all.  The weather is going to have a say as well.  Defensively, both teams have shut-down groups and give up points very grudgingly. Abbey has played a tougher schedule than Vernon, but when the interior squad faced a a very good Argyle squad, they did not miss a dominant beat.  Home field has a say as well.  Based on weather, home field and Vernon's record to date, I have to give this one to em.    GI's Pick: Vernon by 7

Seaquam @ John Barsby: Barsby is playing some very, very good defense of late and with one Carson Graham sized 28 pt. hic-up, the Dawgs have been making it tough on opposing offenses. Seaquam can score however and their vertical game/screens are impressive.  Up front, the size goes to the SeaHawks.  Overall team quickness goes to Barsby.  Home field, Barsby.   GI's Pick: Barsby by 9

Carson Graham @ Mission: Wow, another great match-up.  Carson picked-up its game big-time on the road vs Duchess Park last week and they now get a Mission squad who received their wake-up call in week 10 from Abbey.  Mission matches up better up front and has the best athlete on the field. Carson is getting healthy and has more roster depth.  If Carson can stay balanced on offensse, they will cause the Roadrunners some fits.  Last team holding the ball wins. That means turnovers will play havoc on someone.  GI's Pick: Carson by 2

Ballenas @ Hugh Boyd: Ballenas finally meets a team that can hang with em up front, at least for awhile.  Hugh Boyd has had a pretty fine season to date.  This game may very well come down to who can pass more effectively and defend the same.  GI's Pick: Ballenas by 10

2014 AA Playoffs Round 1

AA Varsity Round One Playoffs

Week Ten In Review

The season ended with a huge upset of the Mission Roadrunners by the Abbottsford Panthers.  I do not think the Mission program has lost a divisional game since 2009, perhaps earlier.  This was big people.  The East has reached parity officially.  In much the same way, Nanaimo District gave Carson Graham the scare of its 2014 life by opening up with a 48-13 lead during the 3rd quarter.  What followed next was one of the great reversals I have witnessed.   Kind of mind numbing.  Up north, the Interior conference asserted itself as a notch above the Northern division in a series of seeding games. Now, we are on to playoffs.


Gridiron's AA Varsity Top 5

1. Vernon Panthers
2. Abbottsford Panthers
3. Mission Roadrunners
4. John Barsby Bulldogs
5. Ballenas Whalers

GI's Picks

G.W. Graham @ Hugh Boyd:  This game is going to be about defense plain and simple.  Both teams can score quickly, especially with good field position. If the Trojans can keep the Grizzlies to under three scores, they win.  GI's Pick: Boyd by 8

Westsyde @ Ballenas: This year's Westsyde squad has quietly put together the best varsity season the program has enjoyed in twenty years.  Well done!  Ballenas however, is on a roll and has home field. The Whaler running game has had only one setback all year and will likely not suffer another this Saturday.  GI's Pick: Whalers by 18

Robert Bateman @ Mission:  These teams know each other as good as any two groups in the Province.  Mission has been culling the Wolfpack for years and I see no reason for this to discontinue, especially coming off of a divisional loss.  The on field match-ups go in Mission's favour across the board.  GI's Pick: Roadrunners by 24

Carson Graham @ Duchess Park:  The Eagles continue their Jekyl and Hyde season on the road this week.  Duchess has made great strides over the years and will have to bring their A-Game in order to compete.  I like the Carson passing game in this contest with just enough run to give the Condors fits. GI's Pick: Carson by 19

Prince George @ John Barsby:  The Polars have been having a great season.  They now travel about as far as one can travel in-province for a tilt vs the John Barsby Bulldogs in the Dawg's back yard. Bit of a connection here as one of the JB coaches is a PGSS alumni and one of the PGSS coaches is a Bulldog Alumni/former Quarterback.  Football is truly a small family.  Once the meet and greet is over, their is a playoff game to get taken care of.  The Barsby defense is going to be a tough nut to crack and the offense has been held to less than 30 pts. only once this year.  GI's Pick: Barsby by 18

Pitt Meadows @ Seaquam:  The Marauders are the lower seed but they come from a way tougher conference and their style of play will reflect this.  Look for Pitt to get it done with smashmouth running and blocking.  Defensively the SeaHawks will hit a brick wall.  GI's Pick: Pitt by 21

Argyle @ Vernon:  Well folks, this should easily be the best game of the first round.  Argyle plays some great offense on artificial turf and is physically on par with the number 1 ranked Panthers.  This said, the Pipers are on the road and Vernon feels like they have a special year on their hands.  The Panthers need to run the ball effectively to win this game.  That IS the recipe.  Argyle needs to play within themselve and opportunistic when the situations come their way.  GI's Pick: Vernon by 12

Frank Hurt @ Abbottsford:  The Panthers are coming off of the biggest win in program history and enter this game with serious swagger.  Arguably, they have a top two roster in terms of athleticism. Frank Hurt is going to get flattened.  GI's Pick: Abbey by 29