2013 Tiering and Divisional Scenario 1

2013 Re-alignment  Scenario 1

**Of note: This is a base scenario.  Please pen your thoughts for discussion and post.

Rationale:

AAA

By and large, a combination of school size, historical success and geography are used here.  Most of the AAA schools in this scenario are are mid-to-large sized in terms of enrollment.  Historically, the former AA squads contain provincial champions such as Handsworth, Seaquam, Rick Hansen, Ballenas, Barsby, South Delta, Mission and Hugh Boyd. Up and comers such as Bateman and Abbey have a combination of large populations, great coaching staffs and a well constructed feeder system.  Geographically, the divisions are built around main transportation corridors/ferry terminals.  For instance, the West and South require only one Bridge crossing/tunnel for any given trip.  Access from ferries is direct.  The Lower Mainland teams have a critical mass of  local squads that Island travel is infrequent (maximum 1 trip per season).  In this way, $ attrition is no longer problematic and regional rivalries can flourish.

AA  

The AA league is in terms of sheer quality and geography, highly competitive/rational in terms of travel.  Conferences are regional, the bulk (though not all)  of the schools in this mix are mid-to-smaller sized and there is parity in terms of program organization ie. historic performance of JV squads, new programs in the mix finding their feet, and numbers of staff/support staff. 

Moving between tiers:  Teams can play "up" to AAA at their request.  Teams that move to AA from AAA must apply to an association competition committee to demonstrate that they are more appropriately placed in AA (Criteria to be published by committee and ratified by 2/3 executive and 50% plus 1 of membership to come into effect thus eliminating gerrymandering on the QT).  A similar process of promotion, forced if necessary, will be determined by competition committee and follow same transparent process of ratification as for moving down.  The timing of this would be December immediately following Championship and votes occuring at beginning of AGM.  Schedules refelecting possible outcomes are prepared prior to vote and distributed at breakout meetings so both tiers leave meeting w/league schedules.

JV

To reflect AAA and AA tiers or can be regionalized.  Programs in AA Varsity ALWAYS have option of joining AAA JV league.

Playoffs:  I will post on playoffs soon.

AAA

Interior                                  

Rutland

Kelowna

Salmon Arm

Mt. Boucherie

(South-Kamloops)

East                                         West                                        South

WJ Mouatt                              Centennial                               Vancouver College

Mission                                    John Barsby                            Lord Tweedsmuir

Terry Fox                                New Westminster                    Mt. Douglas

St. Thomas More                     Notre Dame                            Holy Cross

Robert Bateman                      Handsworth                             South Delta

Rick Hansen                            Carson Graham                       Seaquam

Abbottsford                             Ballenas                                   Hugh Boyd

                                                West Vancouver

AA

Island                                      West                                        East

Nanaimo                                  Howe Sound                           Pitt Meadows

Belmont                                  Moscrop                                  Langley

G.P. Vanier                             Argyle                                     SRT

Timberline                               Eric Hamber                           Frank Hurt

Mark Isfeld                              Earl Marriot                             Sands 

Gulf Islands                            Windsor                                   GW Graham

Ed Milne

Interior                                               North

Okanagen Mission                              Prince George

Valleyview                                          Nechako Valley

Norkam                                               Dutchess Park

Vernon                                                Kelley Road

Clarence Fulton                                   College Heights

Kalamalka                                           Correlieu

Mt. Baker

The Shape of Things To Come

2013 And Beyond

The 2012 AGM served notice that the BC High School Football Landscape is in for a significant change in 2013.  A committe has been struck for realignment and it will bring forth several competing proposals for the membership to ratify this coming September.  Whatever decision is made, the impact will be both significant and lasting in the decade to follow.  We could be looking at one single tier of play.  We could be looking at several tiers of play with enrollment numbers only being a part of the equation.  Recent e-mails have gone forth to the membership to submit possible scenarios with a hard and fast due-date this February.  It is safe to say that if you want to have a say in our association's collective fate, you would be well served to participate in the process. 

I have done some research on school numbers with the outcome below. A quick perusal lends credence to the idea that school numbers alone are not the ultimate determinent of on-field success though they certainly factor in when all other factors weigh in as roughly equal.  I am in the process of speaking to a cross section of the regional leadership/"old hands" as to their perspective and ideas.  I will be publishing a couple 2013 scenarios for you to mull upon in the coming week or so.

Football School Enrollment 2011-2012 Boys G. 11 and 12
1. Kelowna 610

2. Rutland 575

3. New Westminster 527

4. Belmont 497

5. Mt. Boucherie 486

6. Terry Fox 479

7. Centennial 450

8. Eric Hamber 411

9. Earl Marriot 405

10. Prince George 384

11. West Vancouver 379

12. WJ Mouat 367

13. Lord Tweedsmuir 366

14. South Kamloops 351

15. Mt. Douglas 347

16. Argyle 345

17. Salmon Arm 338

18. G.P. Vanier 338

19. Vancouver College 328

20. Correlieu 307

21. Mt. Baker 305

22. South Delta 301

23. Moscrop 300

24. Norkam 294

25. Seaquam 291

26. Carson Graham 290

27. Frank Hurt 282

28. Handsworth 281

29. Abbottsford Collegiate 275

30. Langley 275

31. Robert Bateman 265

32. Nanaimo District 232

33. Ballenas 227

34. Kelley Road 224

35. Timberline 224

36. Vernon 221

37. Howe Sound 220

38. Okanagen Mission 215

39. Rick Hansen 213

40. College Heights 211

41. Mission 210

42. Dutchess Park 205

43. Pitt Meadows 198

44. Mark Isfeld 196

45. Clarence Fulton 193

46. Windsor 189

47. Kalamalka 174

48. GW Graham 172

49. Hugh Boyd 167

50. Edward Milne 167

51. SRT 160

52. Valleyview 159

53. Holy Cross 154

54. John Barsby 153

55. Sands 150

56. Gulf Islands 145

57. STMC 126

58. Notre Dame 123

59. Nechako Valley 113

Congratulations 2011 Champions!

Congratulations to the Mission Roadrunners and Nanaimo District Islanders AA Varsity and Tier 2 Varsity BC Champions Respectively! Well Done Guys!!

Nanaimo District IslandersTier 2 Champs!

Mission Wins in 16-12 Thriller!


**of note, the Mission video out there is a great view from their perspective...lyrical language too foul for publication here however. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWL0zL6nDYU **

Playoff's Round Three

AA Varsity BC Semi-Final Games

John Barsby vs Vernon:  Kudos to the Panthers on their victory and their Semi-Final appearance!  Well done guys!  John Barsby struggled finding any kind of offensive consistency during the first half of their quarter-final game vs Abbottsford last weekend.   They did improve in the second half which has to be a somewhat gratifying.   As the games get only bigger, this has to be corrected if the Dawgs are to advance.  Vernon is getting it done in all of their big games thus far in 2011.  The speed of the Barsby defense is going to present some problems for the Panthers to overcome.  These teams have met in the playoffs twice before (1999 and 2004) with the Dawgs coming out on top.  All things considered, Barsby has the depth to win a third time.

Gridiron's Pick: Barsby by 16

Mission vs Ballenas: Mission has yet to be seriously tested by BC AA varsity competition in 2011.  Is Ballenas the team to get it done?  I think the first quarter of the Ballenas-Holy Cross game is a preview of how things will go.  The Crusaders ran unbalanced, power football at the Whalers and gashed em hard for the first quarter and a half of the game.  Mission quite simply wins all of the match-ups up front and they have better running backs than HC did.  The Whalers have a chance in this one only with a lot, and I mean a lot of turnovers going in their favour.  High school football is a funny game however, and you can never count out a prohibitive underdog playing the game of their lives at exactly the right moment in time.  

Gridiron's Pick: Mission by 18

Tier 2 Varsity BC Championship Final "The Ackles Cup"

Nanaimo District vs Howe Sound: These two teams met several weeks ago in a game that turned-out to be the biggest test of the year for the Islanders.  Gang Green had to recover from a 12-0 deficit to propel themselves past the hard-nosed Sounders on Nanaimo home turf.  Now the Island squad has to travel to play their most dangerous foe for all the marbles this coming weekend.  Both of these squads run similar offenses and play the game with a physical edge.  I don't think that Nanaimo is going to get surprised this time around and I believe they have a better kicking game as well.

Gridiron's Pick: Nanaimo District by 11

Gridiron's Playoff Picks: Round Two

Gridiron's AA Varsity Top Five

1. Mission
2. John Barsby
3. Ballenas
4. Abbottsford Collegiate
5. South Delta

Gridiron's Tier 2 Varsity Top Five

1. Nanaimo District
2. Belmont
3. Timberline
4. Howe Sound
5. G.P. Vanier/Edward Milne

Gridiron's Picks

AA Varsity BC Quarter-Final Picks

John Barsby vs Abbottsford Collegiate:  The Panthers are coming off of a huge win and program milestone vs the Handsworth Royals this past Saturday.  This team has pride and tons of momentum coming up against Nanaimo's John Barsby Bulldogs.  The Panthers have been putting a lot of points on the board and their passing game is a threat to score on every snap.  Defensivley, these guys are tough as well.  The John Barsby defense has not allowed a score since their week 6 game vs Handsworth.  This ought to be a good match-up between the two opposing units.  Look for the kicking game to play a big role in field position come gameday.  Whomever is on a short field will roll.

GI's Pick: Barsby by 18

Vernon vs Rick Hansen: Wow, who would have picked this match-up for the quarter-final game?  Vernon is coming off of a dramatic overtime victory and Rick Hansen, a shocking win over Seaquam. High school football baby, the games are played for a reason and you can never underestimate the capacity of a group of 16 and 17 year olds to catch fire and exceed all expectations. Hansen rolls into the game with a) more playoff experience; b) a more balanced offensive attack; c) a shorter trip to the game and d) a tougher league schedule behind them.  Vernon has a more athletic squad and has had a season of game winning performances.  They come in to the game with high expectations of themselves.  Kicking game will again in this match-up, be a potent force in terms of determining the outcome.

GI's Pick: History is going to be made this weekend with an Interior squad playing its way into the BC Semi-Final game for the first time in over a decade.  Vernon by 8

Ballenas vs Hugh Boyd: The Trojans have completed their season's turn-around and have won a string of close, late season games with a lot hinging on the outcome.  The Trojan defense has been very reluctant to give-up points keeping every game winnable for their offensive counterparts. The Whalers are having a fine season of their own and are consistently scoring over 30 points a contest offensivley.  The special teams group for Ballenas is outstanding and the blue defenders are hard-hitting and opportunistic.  An early surge by Holy Cross last week faltered under the relentless Whaler offensive attack and by game's end, the game was clearly in hand.  I like the Whaler team speed in this one as the difference maker.  Boyd is going to have to get some turnover breaks and start on a very short field consistently to have a realistic shot at victory.

GI's Pick: Whalers by 14

Mission vs South Delta: Mission has clearly been an "order above" in terms of roster depth, size, speed and overall execution in 2011.  The Sundevils have been struggling with consistency throughout the year.  If the blue and gold can keep their emotions in check and execute their offense to a high degree, I see em making the game a bit closer than most expect it to be.  Mission has not been tested north of the 49th and will likely not be tested come game day.  These guys are quite frankly the complete package on both sides of the ball and they will absolutely Dominate the line of scrimmage.  The Mission receivers block exceptionally well in space as well and this means that SD is going to have fits stopping the run inside and out. 

GI's Pick: Mission by 36

Tier 2 Varsity BC Semi-Final Picks

Nanaimo District vs Timberline:  It is playoff time and sure enough, we have a Timberline-Nanaimo District tilt on our hands. Timberline is coming off of its most impressive victory of the year vs G.P. Vanier.  Nanaimo District is coming off of a bye.  The Wolves will be rolling on to the playing field with all the momentum on their side, a healthy roster and the feeling that all the pieces are coming together.  Nanaimo District found themselves reading their own press clippings early on in their last big tilt vs Howe Sound.  This led to a costly first quarter and a half and a hole to be climbed out of.  Athletically, both teams are evenly matched and I think the biggest factor may very well be the weather.  Running the football and hanging on to the dang thing are going to be equally important.  Nanaimo's kicking game is as good as it gets and field position will be crucial come gameday.  This game will be fun to watch!

GI's Pick: Nanaimo District by 7

Belmont vs Howe Sound: Belmont is surging late in the season and Howe Sound has been doing the same with the exception of a tough loss to Nanaimo District.  The Sounders have a long travel day headed into this tilt and have not fared overly well versus  spread offenses that are run with any degree of skill.  Belmont has seen double-wing twice this year and has played against it for half a decade previously.  No great surprises for them.  This game is going to come down to a) grit and b) composure.  Penalties will really hurt either squad as big plays are going to be few and far between in long distance situations come gameday.  Kicking and handling the bounces on Belmont's artificial turf surface will also be problematic.  Practice those short kicks both ways fellas!  This may very well be the closest game of the weekend.

GI's Pick: Belmont by 2

Gridiron's Playoff Picks Round 1

Gridiron's AA Varsity Top Five

1. Mission
2. John Barsby
3. Ballenas
4. Seaquam
5. Handsworth

Gridiron's Tier 2 Varsity Top Five

1. Nanaimo District
2. Howe Sound
3. Belmont
4. G.P. Vanier
5. Timbrline

GI's Playoff Picks

DOUBLE A

TOP HALF DRAW

QUADRANT A

West 1 John Barsby vs. Interior 3 Clarence Fulton:  The Dawgs are loaded for bear and can run or pass with equal effectiveness.  The Dawg D has become exceptional over the course of the year.  Fulton is a bunch of tough-nut gamers who want the challenge and competition.  Kudos to this crew!

GI's Pick:  John Barsby by 21


East 2 Abbotsford vs. West 3 Handsworth:  This is going to be a very, very physical game.  Handsworth has all the playoff exprience here and ought to eke out a victory if they can get their counter game rolling.

 GI's Pick: Royals by 3


QUADRANT B
South 1 Seaquam vs. East 4 Rick Hansen: Seaquam's downhill running game and size up front will enable them to have a big day on the scoreboard against under-sized Rick Hansen.  The points will pile up, particularly in the second half.


GI's Pick: Seaquam by 24

Okanagan 1 Vernon vs. Northern 1 Nechako Valley:  The North is getting better each year.  They have not caught up to the Interior yet and this will be on display for the entire province.  Vernon is bigger and faster.  Good math to have on your side come game-day.

GI's Pick:  Vernon by 21

BOTTOM HALF DRAW

QUADRANT C
West 2 Ballenas vs. South 3 Holy Cross:  Love this match-up.  Can Ballenas stop the HC running game?  Can HC defend one of the three most balanced run-pass attacks in BC?  Special teams, wow, this is going to be big.

 GI's Pick: Ballenas by 10



South 2 Hugh Boyd vs. East 3 Robert Bateman:  These two squads played one another earlier this year.  A healthy Bateman won that game.  Weeks have passed and Boyd seems to be the team that has improved.  The Trojans have a positive history in big games as a staff as well.

 GI's Pick:  Hugh Boyd by 8

QUADRANT D

East 1 Mission vs. Northern 2 Duchess Park:  Great season Dutchess Park.  Way to go yellow and black!  It ends this weekend however.  Is there a match-up that is not hugely in Mission's favour?

 GI's Pick:  Mission by 50...conservatively.

Interior 2 Kalamalka vs. West 4 South Delta:  South Delta is simply bigger, stronger and more battle tested.  Kalmalka has a chance if they can get up early and win the turnover battle.  Tall order.

 GI's Pick: South Delta by 21

Tier 2 Varsity Playoffs

Side A 

#1 NDSS vs #4 Moscrop:

The Islanders will steamroll their opponents on their home field in front of a packed and enthusiastic house.  Moscrop can make a go of it if they get firing on offense and get a couple timely turnovers.  Big "Ifs".

GI's Pick: Nanaimo District by 34

#2 Timberline vs #3 Vanier:

Perhaps the game of the Tier 2 week.  Timberline has a more dynamic offense, but Vanier has perhaps the best back in the league.  Home field goes to the Wolves.  So this one is going to be about defense and the kicking-game.

GI's Pick: Timberline by 2

Side B

#1 Belmont vs #4 EJ Milne:

Milne plays Belmont tough every time.  I think the Wolverines are a bit banged-up heading into this one and Belmont is playing some darn good ball at this point in the season.  The Bulldogs ought to stop the run here and then it becomes a very one dimensional game for Milne.  Not good.

GI's Pick: Belmont by 18

#2 Howe Sound vs #3 Frank Hurt: 

Frank Hurt cannot play the physical game that is going to be required to tangle with the Sounders.  Look for big second half scores for HS.  Hurt, champs no more.

GI's Pick: Howe Sound by 31

ALL LOVE!

Fun to get back in the Ol'Hood!